Energy consultancy Cornwall Insight forecasts that Ofgem's price cap will rise to £1,999 a year for a typical dual-fuel household from 1 January 2027. The forecast, published on 30 September, is £276 above the £1,723 cap that has applied since 1 October. It would be the largest rise since January 2023 and the highest cap since March 2023.

The forecast in numbers

	Annual bill (typical dual fuel, direct debit)
Cap, July to September 2026	£1,663
Cap, October to December 2026 (confirmed)	£1,723
Cap, January to March 2027 (Cornwall Insight forecast)	£1,999

The increase is about 16%, or roughly £23 a month when spread over a year. Because the cap is reset every three months, the extra cost between January and March for a typical household would be around £69.

Cornwall Insight's previous forecast, published in August, was a 9% rise to £1,872. The new figure replaces it.

Why a rise is expected

Cornwall Insight attributes the increase largely to the conflict in the Middle East, which is disrupting gas supplies to Britain and other countries. Wholesale energy costs are the largest single component of the cap, so gas price moves feed through to bills.

Ofgem calculates the wholesale part of the cap from prices over a fixed observation window. For the January cap, the window runs from 19 August to 17 November. With the window already well under way when the forecast was published, Cornwall Insight said the September price rises were locked in, making an increase very likely. The final figure could still move up or down.

How the cap works

The cap limits the unit rate and the daily standing charge a supplier can charge on a standard variable tariff. It does not limit the total bill, so a household that uses more energy than a typical one will pay more than the headline figure.
It applies to around 20 million households in Great Britain on variable tariffs. Around 11 million households were on fixed tariffs as of August 2026 and are not affected until their deal ends.
Ofgem reviews the cap every three months.

Key dates

25 November 2026: Ofgem announces the cap for 1 January to 31 March 2027.
31 March 2027: the government's VAT cut on electricity is due to end, unless it is extended. The cut applies from 1 October 2026 and is already included in Cornwall Insight's forecast.
23 February 2027: Ofgem announces the cap for April to June 2027.

Options for households

Check your tariff. Households on a standard variable tariff are the ones affected by the cap. Comparing it with fixed deals available now is a reasonable step before January.
Submit meter readings before the price change, so that you are billed for usage at the right rate.
Check support eligibility. The Warm Home Discount takes £150 off the electricity bills of eligible households. Eligibility rules are on GOV.UK.
Consider a time-of-use tariff if your home can shift energy use to cheaper hours, for instance with an electric car, a battery or a hot water cylinder. These tariffs suit some households and not others, so compare the rates carefully before switching.

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